FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS, ROME AND WORLD
FOOD PROGRAMME, ROME
SPECIAL REPORT
FAO/WFP CROP AND FOOD SUPPLY ASSESSMENT MISSION TO
THE DEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA
[Reformatted as text file version by WFP - without graphs, and with some
tables replaced with information in list form]
25 November 1997
Mission Highlights
- Korea DPR faces grim food outlook for 1998 as food production falls
for third year running
- Worst drought in decades reduces 1997 maize output to lowest on
record.
- Food production will only cover minimum needs for seven months.
- Substantial food imports, including food aid, equivalent to 1.95
million tons needed in 1997/98.
- 1.25 million tons needed as emergency and programme food aid.
- Public Distribution System highly weakened as supplies fall further,
raising concerns for vulnerable groups without other means to access
food.
- Continued food assistance to children vital to ensure minimum
nutritional needs.
- International assistance also vital to help the country find longer
term solutions to food security, through provision of essential inputs
and sustainable agricultural practices.
1. OVERVIEW.
Since 1995 Korea DPR has suffered a number of natural disasters which
have seriously impeded the capacity of the country to feed its people.
In the aftermath of floods in 1996, the country received an
unprecedented amount of food assistance through the international
community without which undoubtedly the emergence of nutritional and
health problems would have been far more widespread within the
population. Notwithstanding the importance of such food assistance as a
short term measure it is vital that the country address means by which
future, and sustainable, food security can be more assured. In this
regard the performance of the economy and its ability to generate
productive employment and vital foreign exchange for purchase of
essential inputs and raw materials, for agriculture and food imports in
shortfall years, will be essential to any lasting strategy.
Following an interim assessment of this year's drought in August, an
FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission visited Korea DPR from
21 October to 4 November to assess this year's final harvest and
evaluate food supply prospects for the 1997/98 marketing year. In making
its assessment the mission held discussions with key Government
departments, UN agencies and NGOs and made field assessment visits to
main agricultural areas, including North and South Hwangae Province,
South Pyongan province and Kangwon Province. In addition, to assess food
distribution and supply the mission made a number of visits, some
random, to individual households in urban and rural areas, grain stores
and public distribution outlets and schools and nurseries.
The mission found that the negative effect of this year's prolonged
drought resulted largely in a significant decrease in maize production,
one of two main cereals in the country. Although output of rainfed
maize, which constitutes most of the area under production, was severely
reduced, reasonable production was still possible in areas with
variable degrees of irrigation. The overall output of maize is estimated
at around 1.14 million tons, over 50 percent lower than may have been
expected under favourable weather conditions this year. The significant
drop in maize production is consistent with sizeable reductions in
output in main producing areas in north eastern China, which were
similarly affected by the drought this year. The adverse affect of the
drought on rice, however, was much less pronounced as the crop is
largely irrigated. Although the level of irrigation from some
reservoirs, mainly those that are rainfed, was markedly reduced the
overall affect this had on the crop was not as severe as had been
anticipated by the earlier mission in August. Moreover, paddy yields in
areas with assured irrigation were assessed to be higher than expected
under present input constraints. This phenomenon is attributed to
various factors including improved fertilizer efficiency and greater use
of labour. Rice in coastal areas was also affected to some extent by the
incursion of tidal waves following typhoon Winnie in late August.
However in making the final assessment of the harvest this year losses
due to the typhoon were not considered to be as high as had been earlier
anticipated. Milled rice production in 1997, taking into account losses,
is estimated at approximately 1.52 million tons which together with
maize brings aggregate production of these cereals to 2.66 million tons
in milled rice equivalent or 3.48 million tons in paddy equivalent. The
domestic supply of grains this year, therefore, will again be far short
of needs for the third year in succession and once more the country will
be looking at substantial food assistance to meet demand.
Grain supply constraints in recent years have necessitated major
revisions in utilisation as part of a coping strategy. Most significant
of this has been the reduction in grain use for animal feed as well as
the number of animals. Obviously such reduction will have long term
consequences as the availability of animal protein in the diet will fall
far below levels considered desirable. Taking into account reduced
utilisation, though maintaining a minimum stipulation for food use, the
import requirement of cereals for 1997/98 will be around 1.95 million
tons. Of this it is estimated that commercial imports, including
informal cross border trade with China will account for 700 000 tons,
whilst pledged food assistance in the pipeline will bring in a further
241 000 tons. The uncovered import deficit with which the country needs
food assistance, including programme food aid, amounts to about a
million tons.
In assessing the overall issues of food supply and food assistance to
the country, the mission has the following observations. The fact that
the incidence of chronic malnutrition has not become more widespread is
largely the unprecedented levels of food assistance the country has
received in the past two years. Without such assistance there is little
doubt that problems would have been more entrenched, especially amongst
vulnerable groups like children. The mission notes, however, that no
acceptable quantitative evidence regarding the present extent of
malnutrition in the country was available to it and concludes that a
comprehensive assessment must be undertaken. [Footnote:1 - A study was
carried out by WFP and other UN agencies, involving 3 965 children under
7 in 40 nurseries and kindergartens in 19 counties in 4 provinces. The
methodology applied, was not based on random sampling and as such cannot
be seen as being representative of the country as a whole. However, it
lays the basis for a more extensive and representative study in future.]
This is especially important as there is concern that nutritional
problems, and related symptoms such as stunting, may be a result of
endemic problems of food supply and health over several (pre emergency)
years in addition to the extreme food shortages of the past few years.
There is also mounting evidence that much greater polarity in food
consumption exists in the population, than perceived hitherto. Reasons
why this is occurring include transport difficulties, geographical
differences, where some provinces are better equipped to deal with
shortages than others, greater access amongst rural communities than
urban and differential access to assets and foreign remittances and the
corresponding ability to purchase food from emerging, though relatively
insignificant, 'private' markets. There is, therefore, need for enhanced
targeting of food aid.
2. THE AGRICULTURE SECTOR.
Korea DPR is severely constrained by the amount of land it has
available for food production. It is estimated that only around one
fifth, or approximately 2 million hectares, of the total land area can
be cultivated, of which around 1.4 million hectares is considered
suitable for cereal and food grain production.
The limited potential for expanding domestic food production through
area expansion in addition to climatic limitation which effectively
confine cropping to one season a year, have in the past meant that there
has been heavy stress on intensification of agriculture to increase
yields per hectare. This emphasis relied heavily on irrigation,
mechanisation, chemical inputs to enhance yields and electricity.
However although, an estimated 80 percent of cereal area is potentially
irrigable, following destructive floods in 1995 and 1996 a large number
of irrigation structures remain damaged constraining potential.
Moreover, as a result of present economic difficulties there has been a
significant decline in the provision of the other services to
agriculture. The use of chemical fertilizers has fallen appreciably in
the 1990's as imports of either petroleum for manufacture or direct
fertilizer imports have declined; farm machinery remains idle due to
obsolescence, lack of fuel and spare parts, whilst the provision of
electricity for various farm operations has deteriorated due to
significant fall in generating capacity. A combination of these factors
has significantly reduced productivity and agriculture has become
increasingly dependent on labour, animal draft power and organic
fertilizers.
Specifically with regard to fertilizers, due to economic difficulties,
the manufacture, import and use of chemicals has declined markedly in
recent years. The country presently has three manufacturing plants at
Namhung in the south west and Hungnam and Aoji in the east/north east.
However there are two fundamental problems in manufacture namely
industrial obsolescence and poor maintenance, which mean that
substantial investment in plant refurbishment is vital to bring
factories to efficient capacity and the second the extreme shortage of
raw materials, principally petroleum. It is estimated that if the plants
were running to capacity some 410 000 tons of Nitrogen equivalent could
be produced per year. This year however, the Government estimates that
around 300 000 tons of Urea were supplied to agriculture through
manufacture and imports. The mission estimates that less than half of
this was domestically produced. Of total nutrient supply a sizeable part
is reserved for vegetable and fruit production. Taking this into
account, It is estimated that between 50 and 60 kg/ha of nitrogen
equivalent were applied to rice and maize in 1997. The optimum rate
would be nearer 120 to 125 kg/ha of N. The shortfall in nitrogen
application presently, therefore, is roughly 50 to 60 percent. The
corresponding decline in fertiliser use and production of maize and
paddy are illustrated in figures 1 and 2. [not in this text/e-mail
version]
From an environmental standpoint a disturbing phenomena, which appears
to have gained further momentum in recent years of food shortages has
been increased cultivation of highly marginal hill slopes,. This has
resulted in serious deforestation and exacerbated problems of soil
erosion and siltation. In turn, increased silt deposits in river systems
have increased the probability of flooding even in fairly moderate
rainfall years.
Although limited quantities of wheat, barley and millets are grown,
cereal production is dominated by two main cereals, rice and maize. Rice
is cultivated mainly in south-western parts of the country where most of
the country's irrigation capacity is centred and where the climate is
slightly more conducive to production. Maize is the dominant crop in
higher altitude parts of the north. Limited land and the emphasis given
to rice and maize as the dominant cereals, however, have led to
continuos cropping and the lack of rotation and fallowing systems which
in turn have exacerbated problems of declining soil fertility.
Field observations indicate that plant densities per hectare are
comparatively high at between 420 000- 480 000 plants per hectare in
rice and 70 000 - 80 000 plants/ha in maize. The seed rate is also
relatively high ranging from between 120 and 150 kg/ha for transplanted
rice and 40 to 50 kg/ha for maize. Given the quality of seed and
allowing for losses and spoilage, these rates are fairly representative
of most other countries in south east Asia, with the exception of Japan
where rates are considerably lower. The dominant seed types available
with percentage coverage and characteristics, under favourable
conditions, are shown in table 1. The use of the different seed types
is determined by altitude and duration in relation to the number of
frost free days in different localities.
Table 1: Predominant seed types and main characteristics
[Reformatted and taken out of table for text file by WFP. Notes are in
brackets.]
RICE
Seed Type: Pyongyang
Duration - days: 180
Optimum Yield Tons/Ha(2): 10
Average yields Tons/Ha(3): 7
% of total crop area sown: 70-80
[% of total crop area sown for following: Hamzu, Yomzu, Pyonbuk, Other,
together: 20-30]
Seed Type: Hamzu
Duration - days: 150-160
Optimum Yield Tons/Ha(2): 5-6
Average yields Tons/Ha(3): 4-5
Seed Type: Yomzu
Duration - days: 135
Optimum Yield Tons/Ha(2): 4-5
Average yields Tons/Ha(3): 3-4
Seed Type: Pyonbuk
Duration - days: 160-170
Optimum Yield Tons/Ha(2): 6-7
Average yields Tons/Ha(3): 4-5
Seed Type: Other
Duration - days: -
Optimum Yield Tons/Ha(2): -
Average yields Tons/Ha(3): -
MAIZE
Seed Type: Hwanson (5)
Duration - days: 110-135
Optimum Yield Tons/Ha(2): 7-8
Average yields Tons/Ha(3): 6.5
% of total crop area sown: 55
Seed Type: Unsan
Duration - days: 110-135
Optimum Yield Tons/Ha(2): 8
Average yields Tons/Ha(3): 6-6.5
% of total crop area sown: 20
Seed Type: Pyongan
Duration - days: 150
Optimum Yield Tons/Ha(2): 10
Average yields Tons/Ha(3): 5-6
% of total crop area sown: 15
Seed Type: other
Duration - days: 150
Optimum Yield Tons/Ha(2): -
Average yields Tons/Ha(3): -
% of total crop area sown: 10
Notes:
1. Source Agricultural Commission, DPRK.
2. Optimum yields possible under ideal climate and input conditions
3. Average yields possible under ideal climate and input conditions
4. The main Pyongyang varieties are P15, P18 and P21
5. The main Hwansong varieties are H1 and H2
In view of the scarcity of productive land, an intensive system of
manual crop husbandry is practised, the importance of which has
increased in recent years due to either the lack of operational machines
and/or fuel. Indeed to assist with key crop operations a sizeable
component of labour is normally required to be provided by non
agricultural workers from urban areas.
3. PRODUCTION OF CEREALS IN 1997
3.1 The 1997 drought and typhoon
The production of cereals in 1997 was seriously affected by a severe
drought at critical stages in crop development and, to a lesser
extent, by typhoon and tidal waves later in the season. Although at the
time of planting in May rainfall was appreciably above normal, in
subsequent months the amount of precipitation fell sharply and the
country experienced its worst drought for decades. As a result rainfall
in June, July and August averaged between 20 and 30 percent of the long
term average. Figures 3 and 4 illustrate rainfall patterns in 1997
compared to cumulative and long-term monthly averages for a
cross-section of weather stations across the country.
The impact of the drought particularly affected rainfed maize, though
another important consequence was a reduction in the amount of water
available in some irrigation reservoirs fed principally by rainfall. The
reduced availability of water from these reservoirs will also affect
crop prospects in 1998 as the volume available for land preparation and
key planting operations next April/May will be seriously reduced.
Although some replenishment of reservoirs will come from limited
rainfall and snow melt before the onset of the next crop season the
amount anticipated will be well below requirements, as the country
receives a small proportion of its annual rainfall during these months
(figures 3 & 4 [not included in e-mail version]). Currently, based on
observations it is estimated that some reservoirs are between 20 and 30
percent of capacity. In addition to the drought, crops in coastal areas
were also seriously damaged by tidal waves brought by Typhoon Winnie in
late August, which destroyed protective sea barriers along the western
coast. In these areas, the rice crop has been totally destroyed or has
yielded grains which cannot be consumed due to high sodium content. .
3.2 Area cultivated
In view of geographical limitations, it is estimated that the cultivated
area of rice and maize on state and cooperative farms has remained more
or less constant over the last decade. However, there is now greater
proliferation of cultivation of maize into marginal hill areas, though
it is characterised by low productivity and probably contributes
relatively little to aggregate domestic production. In addition such
cultivation must be regarded as an ill considered short term measure to
meet immediate food needs which is neither sustainable nor desirable in
the long term. Nonetheless some allowance of these areas in domestic
production of maize this year has been made.
The official estimates of the areas of rice and maize cultivated this
year by /province is indicated in table 2.
Table 2 DPRK: Area cultivated of rice and maize by municipality/province
in 1997.
[Reformatted for text file version by WFP: format of table may be
corrupted - adjust tab stops if necessary]
Locality Rice Maize Total
Area % of total Area % of total Area % of total
Pyongyang 26 302 4.4 16 289 2.3 42 591 3.3
South Pyongan 98 495 16.4 72 208 10.3 170 703 13.1
North Pyongan 104 951 17.5 105 213 15.0 210 164 16.2
Chagang 6 859 1.1 39 915 5.7 46 774 3.6
South Hwangae 150 117 25.0 105 378 15.1 255 495 19.6
North Hwangae 49 852 8.3 85 270 12.2 135 122 10.4
Kangwon 36 208 6.0 41 828 6.0 78 036 6.0
South Hamyong 59 868 10.0 53 212 7.6 113 080 8.7
North Hamyong 22 954 3.8 59 296 8.5 82 250 6.3
Ryangang 1 975 0.3 9 599 1.4 11 574 0.9
Kaesong 12 412 2.1 2 633 0.4 15 045 1.2
Nampo 15 529 2.6 8 640 1.2 24 169 1.9
other(a) 15 000 2.5 50 000 14.3 115 000 8.8
Total 601 000(b) 650 000(b) 1 251 000(b)
(a) mission estimate including reclaimed tidal areas and hill slopes
for maize.
(b) rounded up to nearest thousand. In terms of agricultural potential,
approximately 30 percent of the main cereal area is located in north and
south Hwangae province, whilst north Pyongan accounts for a further 16
percent.
Compared to area cultivated on cooperative and state farms in 1996,
there was an estimated increase of around 4 percent in paddy and 3
percent in maize this year. This is attributed to rehabilitation of
former flood affected areas and greater cultivation in marginal lands.
In addition to rice and maize a further 50 000 hectares are estimated to
be under wheat, buck-wheat and barley and 40 000 hectares under
potatoes.
3.3 Yields
Even under present input constraints in Korea DPR, yields per hectare
remain relatively high, especially on good to moderate lands which
constitute approximately two thirds of cereal area. This may be
attributed to a combination of various factors;
(a) although per hectare use of fertilizers has fallen in the
1990's, the impact on yields has been less marked than may be expected
as a result of greater efficiency in fertiliser use and the residual
effect of nutrients in the soil due to high applications in the past. In
these circumstances, although nitrogen application is essential to
enhance or sustain yields, the need for phosphates and potassium is less
crucial. Indeed in the case of P the introduction of phosphate releasing
bacteria as microbial fertilizers help enhance the content of phosphates
in the soil.
(b) the use of organic and microbial fertilizers has increased.
(c) given exiting soils, the control level of yields, ie those that
would be produced even without the application of chemical fertilizers
is relatively high and estimated at around 3 tons per hectare on good
soils.
(d) crop husbandry and the use of labour is highly intensive which
contributes to high plant densities per hectare and through field
operations. Moreover, in recent years it is probable that labour use in
agriculture has increased as a result of significant under-employment in
the manufacturing sector and the need of the urban population to have
more direct and physical access to food supplies.
3.4 Maize production
Maize in the food economy of Korea DPR, has assumed increased
importance in recent years. It is estimated that approximately 650 000
hectares were cultivated this year, principally in south Pyongan, north
and south Hwangae and north Hamyong provinces. Planting normally takes
place from mid April to early May, whilst flowering and pollination
occurs around the middle of July. During pollination, the water and soil
moisture regime is of vital importance and significant shortages, as in
1997, can seriously affect grain formation and production. Harvesting
begins at the end of August and extends to mid September. The main maize
varieties are Hwansong 1 and 2 and Unsan 5, which together cover an
estimated 75 percent of crop area. Under present input constraints in
agriculture yields of maize could range from 5 tons/ha on good soils to
between 2 and 3 tons/ha on moderate to poor soils. Had weather been
favourable this year, an average of around 3.5 tons/ha would have been
reasonably expected. Maize is largely rainfed and as a consequence
suffered most from this year's drought. However, production was not
assumed to have been affected by the typhoon and tidal waves.
In estimating maize production this year, the mission based its
assessment on the following crop scenarios and assumptions.
- 195 000 hectares which had continuous irrigation, where crops were
observed to be in good condition with an average yield of 3.5 tons per
hectare. Production from this area, therefore, would amount to 682 500
tons.
- Approximately 130 000 hectares which had limited supplementary
irrigation with an estimated yield of 1.75 tons per hectare, which would
produce 227 500 tons.
- 325 000 hectares of rainfed maize with an average yield of 0.7 tons
per hectare, giving production of 227 500 tons.
Based on this analysis maize production in 1997 is estimated at 1.138
million tons, some 51 percent lower than last year and the lowest on
record.
3.5 Rice production
Rice is the country's main staple, cultivated on an estimated 600 000
hectares, with a crop cycle of 150 to 180 days depending on variety and
location. The crop is normally transplanted from mid May to early June
and reaches flowering from the beginning to the middle of August. Rice
needs ample water to the middle of September or approximately a week to
ten days before full maturity. It is estimated that more than 80 percent
of the area under rice is planted to one of three main varieties namely;
Pyongyang 15, 18 or 21. For prevailing soil conditions in the country,
rice optimally requires 150 kg/ha of Nitrogen (N), 75 kg/ha of Potassium
(K) and 60 kg/ha of Potash (P) respectively, to be applied as basal
applications, at tillering, just before flowering and at grain
development. In 1997, allowing for constraints in input supply, under
optimal weather and water conditions over 4 tons/ha of paddy could have
been produced on average within a range of 6 tons/ha on good lands to 2
-2.5 tons/ha on poor lands.
In estimating paddy production, field observations suggest that the
damage due to the drought this year and lack of irrigation from some
reservoirs was not as severe as the earlier mission in August had
envisaged. In addition paddy loss in areas affected by the typhoon and
tidal waves was not as large as earlier projected. The estimate of paddy
production was based on the following scenarios and assumptions.
An estimated 461 000 hectares of paddy received continuous irrigation,
which were not affected by the drought. Crop samples from these areas,
at harvest, indicated yields of between 4.2 to 4.4 tons per hectare.
Assuming an average yield of 4.3 tons/ha some 1.98 million tons of paddy
was produced in these areas.
An estimated 90 000 hectares of paddy which received partial irrigation,
which helped maintain a reduced water regime in fields. In these areas,
field observations indicate an average yield of 3.5 tons per hectare,
giving overall production of a further 315 000 tons.
Some 35 000 hectares of paddy where soils had dried, though not
completely, due to deficient irrigation, with reduced yields of around 2
tons per hectare. Production from these areas amounts to a further 70
000 tons.
An estimated 15 000 hectares which were severely affected by the lack of
irrigation. Samples, taken at harvest in these areas indicate severely
reduced yields of between 0.1 and 0.5 tons per hectare. Assuming an
average yield of 0.3 tons per hectare from these areas production is
estimated at 4 500 tons.
Before taking into account losses due to the incursion of tidal sea
water into coastal paddy areas gross aggregate 1997 production of paddy,
based on the above estimates and scenarios, would have amounted to 2.37
million tons. However, it is estimated that tidal waves damaged an
estimated 10 000 hectares. Field observations in damaged tidal areas
indicated that although some grain formation did take place, the sodium
content in the grain made it unsuitable for human and feed consumption.
On average, yields in coastal areas would have amounted to around 2.5
tons per hectare, which suggests a loss of 25 000 tons in total. Total
paddy production for 1997 is therefore estimated at around 2.35 million
tons, or 1.52 million tons of milled rice.
The estimate of cereal production under the scenarios outlined above is
summarised in table 4.
Table 4. Paddy and Maize Production in 1997
[Reformatted and taken out of table for text file version by WFP. Notes
are in brackets.]
Crop/Scenario with Area (Hectares), Estimated Yield (Kgs/ha)and
Production (Tons)
MAIZE
i) Irrigated no damageArea (Hectares): 195 000
Estimated Yield (Kgs/ha): 3 500
Production (Tons): 682 500
ii) Partially irrigated - some damageArea (Hectares): 130 000
Estimated Yield (Kgs/ha): 1 750
Production (Tons): 227 500
iii) Rainfed - severely damagedArea (Hectares): 325 000
Estimated Yield (Kgs/ha): 700
Production (Tons): 227 500
Total Maize
Production (Tons): 1 137 500
PADDY/RICE
i) Irrigated no damageArea (Hectares): 461 000
Estimated Yield (Kgs/ha): 4 300
Production (Tons): 1 982 300
ii) Reduced irrigation - limited yield loss
Area (Hectares): 90 000
Estimated Yield (Kgs/ha): 3 500
Production (Tons): 315 000
iii) Reduced irrigation - large yield loss
Area (Hectares): 35 000
Estimated Yield (Kgs/ha): 2 000
Production (Tons): 70 000
iv) Reduced irrigation- severe yield loss
Area (Hectares): 15 000
Estimated Yield (Kgs/ha): 300
Production (Tons): 4 500
v) Typhoon/tidal wave damage
Area (Hectares): (10 000)
Estimated Yield (Kgs/ha): 2 500
Production (Tons): (25 000)
Total paddy production (Tons): 2 346 800
Total rice production (a)/ (Tons): 1 525 420
Total maize and rice (Tons): 2 662 920
a)/ Assuming a milling rate of paddy to rice of 65 percent. Although
in the past a higher milling rate was used, the deterioration in machine
milling, the lack of maintenance of machines and the greater use of
manual milling systems suggests a lower rate.
3.6 Other food crops
As the production and availability of main cereals in recent years has
declined the importance of other crops in the food economy, mainly
potatoes has increased. It is estimated that approximately 40 000
hectares of potatoes are cultivated at an average yield of 8 tons per
hectare. Some 320 000 tons of potatoes, or 80 000 tons of grain
equivalent were produced in 1997. No official data were available on the
quantities of wheat and barley produced, though it is estimated that
productivity of these crops is low and only negligible quantities come
into the food chain. What is of more importance in future will be the
possibility of enhancing domestic grain production through double
cropping. As estimated 150 000 hectares are earmarked by the government
as possible areas for autumn and spring double cropping programmes.
Under the scheme crops are planted in October or March respectively for
harvesting in June. Provided suitable quantities of seed and fertilizer
are available an estimated 300 000 tons of grain could potentially be
produced per annum under the double crop programme. (Also see section 5)
Vegetables are also an important source of vitamins and essential
micro-nutrients in the diet. The mission observes that the emphasis
given to vegetable production, especially on private plots appears to
have increased since 1995. The contribution of individual family plots
to household food security is also becoming more significant in this
regard.
3.7 Livestock
In view of the economic and agricultural climate in the last few years,
there have been large changes in the composition of the livestock
sector. Certainly the numbers of livestock, particularly pigs on state
and co-operative farms have decreased markedly as less grain has been
available for feed. Observations suggest that numbers in these sectors
have dropped by as much as sixty to seventy percent in the case of pigs.
Presently co-operatives appear to maintain core breeding stock for
reproduction and distribution to individual households for tending. The
importance of oxen has increased for draft power and the government has
also emphasised goat rearing, which can be fed on grass and do not
require grains for feed, as potential suppliers of milk and meat. The
scarcity of feed has also meant that livestock only receive limited
quantities of grain and are alternatively fed by-products such as bare
maize cobs, stalks and grasses. Although such a diet is permissible for
ruminants, for pigs grains as part of the diet is essential to maintain
productive stock. Moreover, the use of cattle for draft use in farm
operations is becoming more and more important which makes some
provision of higher energy grain to supplement by-product rations
essential. The mission observed very few chickens on state enterprise or
as part of the food economy of individual household. As poultry are
heavily dependent on grains for feed this lack is attributed to cereal
shortfalls in recent years. Nonetheless as an important source of
protein in a balanced diet some build up of this sector is essential in
future as the mission considers that further depletion of stocks would
have serious long term repurcussions on nutrition.
4. FOOD SUPPLY SITUATION
Three consecutive years of natural disasters, coupled with underlying
problems in the economy and agriculture in the 1990s have inevitably
resulted in a substantial decrease in food production and supply.
Production in the past was heavily dependent on an intensive agriculture
sector where provisions were made to optimise, as much as possible, both
cereal and livestock production. With high fertilizer applications and
the intensive use of machines and irrigation, productivity in
agriculture was high and the country produced most of its needs in
normal years. In years of shortfall the country was able to import,
barter, grains from trading partners, especially the former Soviet Union
and China. The break-up of the former Soviet Union and the corresponding
economic shocks of the 1990s have greatly incapacitated the ability of
Korea DPR to meet food needs in several important ways. The industrial
sector and the economy has been in steep decline for several years
eroding the ability to finance either direct food imports or raw
materials, such as petroleum and fertilizers, which are essential for
maintaining productivity in agriculture. The result has been a growing
divergence in food supply and demand over several years. Needless to say
that natural disasters since 1995 have greatly added to the problem.
Within this context, therefore, future food security in Korea DPR
depends on general economic performance as well as on efforts to
increase output in agriculture. To this end, it is vital that the
Government address the major issue of how the industrial sector is to be
revamped to generate much needed foreign exchange and support domestic
food production,. In the absence of much needed investment and
development in industries the future for food supply in Korea DPR
appears grim with or without emergencies.
Over the last twelve months the unprecedented volume of food assistance
to the country has been crucial to sustain a large part of the
population, without which the consequences of food shortages, such as
the extent of malnutrition in the population, would have been far worse.
With regard to the extent of the problem, however, although there is
considerable anecdotal evidence of nutritional and health problems in
the country due to food shortages, there is no statistical evidence of
its extent.
In the 1996/97 marketing year taking into account domestic supply of
grains, the volume of cereal imports, including food aid, and deducting
grain use for seed, losses, feed and other uses, it is estimated that
the per caput availability of cereals was around 129 kg/year or 353
grams/day. This amount of grain would provide approximately 1235
Kcal/caput/day. This compares to 457 grams/day or roughly 1600 Kcal/day
the UN uses to determine minimum emergency rations. Moreover, although
in the past it was assumed that food was distributed reasonably
equitably throughout the population through institutional structures
such as the Public Distribution System (PDS) it is evident that, in the
wake of serious food shortages, food consumption is becoming more
polarised in society with some provinces and groups consuming more than
others. Certainly the ability of provinces neighbouring China to counter
food problems through cross border transactions is much greater that
those further removed without such access. Moreover it is unlikely that
the proceeds from such transactions are systematically channelled to the
rest of the population, not least because internal transport has all but
ceased operation due to lack of fuel. Even within provinces and
localities, the agricultural population is better placed to deal with
food supply constraints than the urban population as supplies to the PDS
have been dramatically reduced. Unfortunately the extent of such
polarity and differences in consumption are difficult to substantiate
through studies and observations as access and mobility in the country
remain difficult.
It is also becoming more evident that alternative mechanisms to access
food, such as private markets and special outlets operated by individual
employers, are gradually growing in importance. Access to such
mechanisms, however, are highly dependent on individual circumstance.
4.1 Cereal food supply/demand balance: 1997/98
In deriving the national cereal balance for 1997/98, it is important to
note that the balance sheet is intended to provide an overall -
national- perspective of needs. Distributional issues and those related
to differences in consumption in society cannot obviously be reflected
in such a derivation. It is appropriate for such issues to be dealt with
through effective targeting of food aid. It is therefore all the more
important that agencies in the country dealing with humanitarian food
assistance be allowed greater and freer access to assess such issues, to
ensure greater transparency in the distribution of food aid. The
assumptions used in the balance sheet are as follows;
- A mid year population of 23.2 million in 1998.
- A minimum consumption requirement of 100 kg/caput of rice and 67
kg/caput of maize per annum to meet 75 percent of daily calorie intake.
This is the minimum ration the UN uses to determine emergency rations.
The level of calories from such a quantity of cereals would be
approximately 1600 kcal/day/caput of an intake of around 2 130 kcal/day.
In addition to this minimum cereal requirement obviously there is need
to ensure that the population receive adequate quantities of protein and
fats from other foods.
- The seed requirement for the 1998 crop year, assuming that area
planted is similar to 1997, would be equivalent to approximately 75 000
tons of paddy (seed rate of 125 kg/ha) and 29 000 tons of maize using a
seed rate of 45 kg/ha.
- Post harvest and storage losses are assumed to be 12 percent of
production. Although in the past a lower rate of losses was assumed this
has been revised up in view of deterioration in the operation and
maintenance of transport, threshing and storage systems. This year for
example the mission noted that there were significant delays in the
transfer of paddy from fields to threshing centres as a result of lack
of transport.
- Since 1995 there has been a dramatic reduction in the numbers of
animals in the state sector and in the corresponding use of grains for
animal feed. Currently ruminants are increasingly being fed crop
by-products such as stalks and dehusked maize cobs. Pigs however, being
mono-gastric, can not survive on these except in the fresh state and
therefore will need supplementary feed and grain to survive, especially
over-winter. In addition given the workload expected of draft animals in
the next cropping season it is necessary that some provision for
additional grain to maintain health and productivity is made. In normal
years a provision of 250 - 300 kg/animal/year was made for intensively
fed livestock in the state sector. In the present circumstances a
provision of 150 kg/animal/year is assumed as the supplement required to
maintain livestock at reasonable levels of nutrition. This is important
if the sector is not to deteriorate further. In addition some provision
of grain is also included for the build up of the poultry sector which
are largely grain fed and an important source of meat protein.
- In view of the severity of food shortages no stock build up is
assumed.
To meet food shortages the country, through national and provincial
channels, has had to intensify efforts to import food grains
commercially in spite of deep seated economic problems which severely
limit trade. In this respect the mission notes that the country over the
last year has been more successful in securing imports from countries
like Thailand and Vietnam than hitherto anticipated due to past problems
of repayment. In 1997/98, commercial imports are provisionally estimated
at 700 000 tons, including informal and cross border imports from
China.
The cereal balance sheet for 1997/98 is shown in Table 5
Table 5. Korea DPR: Cereal balance sheet for 1997/98 (Nov/Oct) ('000
tons)
Total Availability: 2 663
Production: 2 663
Stock draw-down: 0
Total Utilisation: 4 614
Food use: 3 874
Feed use: 300
Other uses, seed and losses: 440
Import requirement: 1 951
Commercial imports: 700
Pledged food assistance(a): 241
Uncovered import requirement: 1 010
(a) Carryover pledges from the 1996/97 marketing year.
4.2 Need for external food assistance It is clear that the present
food crisis in Korea DPR is as much a result of natural disasters in the
last few years as the consequence of accelerated economic decline,
particularly after the collapse of preferential trading and economic
ties with the former Soviet Union. As addressed in earlier sections,
food production is heavily impeded by a severe lack of essential factors
of production which, together with natural disasters have led to
dwindling domestic supplies. Moreover as the country has not been able
to meet the shortfall between supply and demand through commercial
imports of food it has had to rely heavily on international assistance.
Although since 1995, the country has received unprecedented levels of
food assistance the volume has not been sufficient to meet normal food
and utilisation needs. The overall lack of assured supply therefore,
has had various repercussions; minimum food needs in parts of the
population have not been met, there has been a dramatic reduction in
utilisation through reduction of grain use for feed and other uses and
the public distribution system has become far less important in ensuring
essential supplies to urban population. The reduction in grain use in
food and feed in turn will undoubtedly result in nutritional problems in
some strata of the population and further reduce the availability of
animal protein in the diet. As part of coping mechanisms more and more
discrepancies are appearing in society in terms of food acquisition. For
example the development of a parallel marketing system, outside the
state structure, which primarily benefits parts of the population with
access to remittances from abroad or tradable assets.
The significant fall in domestic food production over the last few years
has also meant that there is greater resistance in the farming
population to supply food to the urban population without sufficient
compensation in goods and services. These goods and services are,
however, becoming increasingly unavailable as large parts of the
manufacturing sector remain idle, with only an estimated 30 percent of
industrial capacity presently operating.
Also this year, co-operative and state farms will not be able to provide
adequate food to the Public Distribution System (PDS) and food flows
between surplus and deficit areas will be much reduced due to transport
problems.
The combination of all these factors have led to polarity in food
consumption in various respects, ie people with assets and remittances
fare better than those without, the farming community is better placed
to meet shortages than the urban population, whilst individual
provinces, especially those neighbouring China or those having better
agriculutral production, have become more autonomous in dealing with
food supply problems. Overall, therefore, food shortages are most
entrenched in urban areas and, of this, in parts of the population which
so far have relied entirely on the PDS for food supply.
In spite of the coping mechanisms, which have countered food shortages
in the country to some extent, over the next year Korea DPR will
continue to need large scale international food assistance for segments
of the population that have the least capacity to acquire food and or
have limited access to other channels of supply such as markets.
4.3 Targeted food assistance
Most observers agree that targeting of food assistance to children,
especially in nurseries and kindergartens, considerably reduced
malnutrition rates in this group. In general, this assistance was well
targeted and could be satisfactorily monitored. Therefore, a
continuation of such assistance on a national basis is highly
recommended.
Children in nurseries and kindergartens will receive cooked meals
providing around 1 600 kcal/day as well as required protein. The
programme could cover up to 2.6 million children, 6 years and under.
In addition, an assistance programme to pregnant and nursing mothers
should provide supplementary food as take-home rations with an energy
content of about 980 kcal/day and 25 gram protein for a period of 18
months. This programme could target around 460 000 mothers/year in
programmes jointly carried out with partners in the health sector.
Up to 315 000 tons of cereals plus 95 000 tons of other food would be
required for the Vulnerable Group Feeding, as described above.
In the event sufficient donor support is forthcoming to support the
production of biscuits and/or for the preparation of meals for school
children in the 7 to 12 years age bracket, the provision of
supplementary food providing 525 kcal/day would be a very valuable
contribution to supplement the diet for this vulnerable group. Such a
programme could support up to 2.2 million school children and about 160
000 tons of cereals would be needed.
During the last two years, Food for Work activities have been very
successful and well appreciated both by the beneficiaries and by
government. The mission recommends to increase these activities in order
to support land rehabilitation activities and to stimulate other
employment generating activities for a large part of the industrial
workforce which is presently under-employed due to a stagnant economy.
Up to 320 000 tons of cereals could be used in this programme, which
should provide employment for an average period of 6 months for about
0.9 million workers and provide food for them and their families (in
total approx. 4 million beneficiaries). This would reduce pressure on
the PDS and at the same time allow improved targeting and monitoring of
international food assistance. A summary of food assistance need for
targeting of such programs is outlined in table 6.
Table 6 Korea DPR: Food aid needs for targeted beneficiaries.
[Original in Table showing: Type of Assistance, Quantity of Cereals
('000 tons), and Beneficiaries ( '000s). Reformatted for text file
version by WFP]
Type of Assistance: Nutritional support nurseries, kindergartens (6
years and under)
Quantity of Cereals ('000 tons): 290
Beneficiaries ( '000s): 2 630
Type of Assistance: Pregnant and lactating mothers
Quantity of Cereals ('000 tons): 25
Beneficiaries ( '000s): 460
Type of Assistance: School feeding (7 to 12 years.)
Quantity of Cereals ('000 tons): 160
Beneficiaries ( '000s): 2 200
Type of Assistance: Food for work
Quantity of Cereals ('000 tons): 320
Beneficiaries ( '000s): 4 000
Total Quantity of Cereals ('000 tons): 795
Beneficiaries ( '000s): 9 290
Since the overall deficit to be covered by external assistance is 1.251
million tons of cereals in 1997/98, including food aid in the pipeline,
the mission recommends that the balance, over and above assistance to
targeted beneficiaries above, which amount to some 456 000 tons be
channelled through the PDS on a regionally selective basis as programme
food aid.
4.4 Food aid monitoringDealing with the international relief
community and with procedures linked to foreign food assistance is new
in Korea DPR. Nonetheless, a well functioning public administration and
an elaborate public food distribution network greatly facilitate the
distribution and accounting of food assistance. A limited amount of spot
checks with distribution centres carried out by the mission proved a
high level of accountability. However, greater transparency in food aid
distributions is still needed and in this respect the Government is
urged to provide and facilitate more information and greater random
access to distribution centres and different parts of the country. As
there are an increasing number of international agencies working in food
aid distribution in Korea DPR there is also greater need for the UN
system and Government to work together in co-ordinating these efforts.
In doing so, Government and relief agencies need to agree that food
assistance programmes can only cover institutions and areas which are
accessible and where it is possible to verify beneficiary numbers and
actual beneficiary receipts. All other beneficiary groups have to be
supported through the government distribution system using national
resources.
5. MEDIUM TO LONG TERM MEASURES.
Future food security in Korea DPR will be highly influenced by the
performance of the economy and the ability of the country to generate
revenues to import essential inputs for agriculture and food in years of
shortfall. Such food security can only be assured in the long term
through a robust economy. As it is impossible that the economic fortunes
of the country can change overnight there is need for external
interventions in the short to medium term to safeguard the nutritional
health of the population and promote greater food security through a
more efficient and sustainable agricultural system. Apart from food
assistance to vulnerable groups which are essential in the short term,
additional food for work programmes should also be considered for
agricultural rehabilitation and other productive schemes.
In the short to medium term the country also needs assistance in
revitalising its agriculture to enhance domestic food production. In
view of land limitations it would obviously be desirable to optimise
land use through enhanced cropping which would enable more than one crop
a year to be harvested. Over the last year the country was assisted by
FAO and other UN agencies in the implementation of a limited double
cropping programme with assistance with barley seed and fertilizers. It
is estimated that approximately 150 000 hectares would be suitable in
future for such cropping with which the international community could
assist with the provision of suitable seeds and fertilizers.
International assistance with the supply of herbicides and insecticides
which are in very short supply, would also enhance productivity.
Other areas to promote greater food security include:
- Crop diversification to reduce the emphasis on mono-cropping. Such
diversification would enhance soil productivity in the long run and
reduce risk of crop loss in any one year due to adverse weather
conditions.
- Research and trials of early maturing and short-maturing varieties to
optimise land use.
- Research into effective crop rotation schemes and leguminous crops to
promote soil fertility and productivity.
- Research and development of integrated crop and livestock systems.
- Reforestry programmes to redress ecological problems due to
cultivation of marginal hill slopes.
This report is prepared on the responsibility of the FAO and WFP
Secretariats with information from official and unofficial sources.
Since conditions may change rapidly, please contact the undersigned for
further information if required.
Abdur Rashid
Chief, GIEWS FAO
Telex 610181 FAO I
Fax: 0039-6-5705-4495
E-mail:GIEWS1@FAO.ORG
Ms. J. Cheng-Hopkins
Regional Director, OAP, WFP
Telex: 626675 WFP 1
Fax: 0039-6-6513-2209
E-Mail: Judy.Cheng-Hopkins@WFP.ORG
Please note that this Special Report is available on the Internet as
part of the FAO World Wide Web at the following URL address:
HTTP://WWW.FAO.ORG/GIEWS/